Chicago White Sox VS Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 -185, Royals -1.5 160
• Money Line: White Sox 115, Royals -135
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 45%
• Kansas City Royals - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 46.48%
• Kansas City Royals - 53.52%

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League Central matchup, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium on April 7, 2024. The Royals will enter the game as the home team, while the White Sox will be the away team.

The Royals are having a good season so far with a record of 5-4. In their last game, they faced the White Sox and emerged victorious with a 3-0 win. The Royals' offense has been performing well, ranking 14th in MLB and boasting a strong hitter in Bobby Witt Jr., who has been a standout player this season. Witt Jr. has recorded 7 runs, 2 home runs, and 2 stolen bases, with a batting average of .389 and an impressive OPS of 1.200.

On the pitching front, the Royals are projected to start right-hander Alec Marsh. Marsh has started one game this year, earning a win with an excellent ERA of 1.29. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Marsh is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.3 batters.

The White Sox, on the other hand, have struggled this season with a record of 1-7. They are looking to bounce back from their recent loss against the Royals. Yoan Moncada has been their standout hitter, and while the team's offense ranks 26th in MLB, Moncada has been a consistent performer.

Left-hander Garrett Crochet is expected to take the mound for the White Sox. Crochet has started two games this season, with an impressive ERA of 1.38. However, like Marsh, his xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could see some regression in future outings. Crochet is projected to pitch an average of 4.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 4.2 batters.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, with the Royals boasting an average offense and a bullpen ranked 24th in MLB, while the White Sox have struggled both offensively and in their bullpen, which is ranked last in the league.

Based on THE BAT X projections, the Royals are given a 54% win probability, while the White Sox have a 46% win probability. The current odds reflect a close game, with the Royals favored at -135 and the White Sox as underdogs at +115.

With the Royals having a strong start to the season and the White Sox looking to turn things around, this matchup promises to be an intriguing contest. Will the Royals' offense continue its solid performance, or will the White Sox bounce back and find success against Alec Marsh? Only time will tell as these two teams battle it out on the diamond.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The switch-hitting Robbie Grossman will bat from his bad side (0) today against Alec Marsh

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Yoan Moncada, Korey Lee, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Marsh to throw 85 pitches in today's game (14th-most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 153 games (+15.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 51% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox 4.88 vs Kansas City Royals 4.96

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