Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 4/20/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - White Sox
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 120, Phillies -1.5 -140
• Money Line: White Sox 240, Phillies -290
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -125

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 28%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 72%

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies will be hosting the Chicago White Sox in an interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park on April 20, 2024. The Phillies, with a record of 12-8, are having a great season, while the White Sox, with a record of 3-16, are struggling.

The Phillies are projected to start their right-handed pitcher, Zack Wheeler, who has been performing at an elite level this season. Wheeler has started four games, with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an excellent ERA of 3.00. He is expected to pitch around 6.3 innings, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs and striking out 6.9 batters per game. However, his projected walk rate and hits allowed are not favorable.

On the other hand, the White Sox will be starting Mike Soroka, a right-handed pitcher who has been struggling this season. Soroka has started four games, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and a high ERA of 6.98. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future. Soroka is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.0 batters per game. His hits allowed and walks projected are also high.

In terms of offense, the Phillies rank 21st in MLB, while the White Sox rank last at 30th. The Phillies have a good team batting average and stolen bases ranking, but their home run ranking is average. On the other hand, the White Sox have struggled in all offensive categories.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the massive betting favorite with an implied win probability of 72%. They have a high implied team total of 4.68 runs. The White Sox, as the underdog, have an implied win probability of 28% and a low team total of 2.82 runs.

Considering the projections, the Phillies have the advantage in terms of starting pitching, offense, and bullpen. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the White Sox could potentially capitalize on Zack Wheeler's low-walk tendency against their low-walk offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Mike Soroka has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Martin Maldonado's batting average talent is projected to be in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Chicago White Sox projected lineup projects as the weakest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Zack Wheeler in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mike Soroka doesn't generate many whiffs (20th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

White Sox vs Phillies Prediction: White Sox 3.25 - Phillies 4.32

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