Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 4/19/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Spencer Turnbull - Phillies
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 -140, Phillies -1.5 120
• Money Line: White Sox 155, Phillies -180
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 38%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 62%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 36.57%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 63.43%

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Chicago White Sox on April 19, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. This interleague matchup features the Phillies, who have had a great season with a record of 11-8, against the struggling White Sox, who sit at 3-15. Both teams will be looking to gain an edge and secure a victory in this series opener.

On the mound for the Phillies will be right-handed pitcher Spencer Turnbull, who has shown promise with a 1-0 win/loss record and an impressive 1.80 ERA this season. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings place Turnbull at a lower rank among MLB pitchers, suggesting that he may not perform as well going forward.

Opposing Turnbull will be left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet from the White Sox. Crochet has displayed his skills with a 3.57 ERA, though his advanced-stat Power Rankings rank him as one of the top starting pitchers in MLB. This indicates that Crochet has potential for strong performances.

Statistical projections indicate that Turnbull is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings and allow an average of 2.0 earned runs. While his strikeout rate is below average, he is projected to struggle in terms of hits and walks allowed. On the other hand, Crochet is projected to pitch around 4.9 innings and allow an average of 2.2 earned runs. He has a good strikeout rate but is expected to struggle with hits and walks.

The Phillies' offense has been solid this season, ranking 21st in MLB. They have been effective in team batting average, ranking 8th, and stolen bases, ranking 10th. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense has struggled, ranking last in the league.

Considering the projections and overall team performance, the Phillies are the favorites for this game with a higher projected win probability. However, it's important to note that the White Sox have shown some positive signs in Crochet's performances, and anything can happen in baseball.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the White Sox have a lower implied team total of 3.25 runs. The projections suggest that the Phillies are expected to score 4.36 runs on average, while the White Sox are projected to score 3.49 runs.

With THE BAT X ranking the Phillies as a big favorite with a projected win probability of 63%, the White Sox are viewed as underdogs at 37%. However, it's important to approach these projections with caution, as baseball can always surprise us.

As the game approaches, both teams will be aiming to capitalize on their strengths and find ways to secure a victory. It will be an intriguing matchup between the Phillies' strong offense and the White Sox's strong pitcher, setting the stage for an exciting game at Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Garrett Crochet in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Since the start of last season, Andrew Benintendi's 3% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 7th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among all starters, Spencer Turnbull's fastball spin rate of 2469.6 rpm grades out in the 93rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Johan Rojas has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 29.35 ft/sec to 30.01 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 143 games (+13.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+7.55 Units / 20% ROI)

White Sox vs Phillies Prediction: White Sox 3.56 - Phillies 4.45

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