Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 5/3/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 3, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an exciting National League Central matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers are currently struggling with a record of 16-17, while the Cubs are in the midst of a strong season at 20-13. The stakes are high as both teams vie for positioning in a competitive division.

In their previous outing, the Cubs secured a victory against the Brewers, giving them a winning edge in this series. Milwaukee will look to bounce back behind left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has demonstrated remarkable form this season with a 4-0 record and a stellar ERA of 1.14. However, advanced projections suggest that Quintana's performance might not be sustainable, as his xFIP of 4.33 indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far.

The Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, a solid right-hander with an average ERA of 4.01. Taillon aims to strengthen his position after starting six games this year. Both pitchers project to go approximately 5.5 innings, but Quintana's strikeout rate and ability to limit earned runs will be tested against a powerful Cubs lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in both batting average and home runs.

Offensively, the Brewers are ranked 17th overall, with their strength in stolen bases (2nd in MLB). However, their home run production (22nd in MLB) could hinder their chances against a Cubs team that not only excels in power but also boasts a 20th-ranked bullpen. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a close contest. With the moneyline at -110 for both teams, bettors may find value in Milwaukee's potential to turn around their fortunes at home.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's 92-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 25th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Carson Kelly has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year's 87.5-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Because flyball batters have a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Jose Quintana and his 44.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in this game facing 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.55 Units / 51% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 28% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.86, Milwaukee Brewers 4.49

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers

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