Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros Prediction – 6/27/2025

As the season heats up, both the Houston Astros and the Chicago Cubs find themselves competing at a high level, each sporting a record of 48-33. This interleague matchup on June 27, 2025, at Daikin Park will be the first in their series, promising an intriguing contest between two solid teams. The Astros are coming off a strong performance, while the Cubs have also been holding their own recently, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Houston's Brandon Walter is set to take the mound, projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings. Despite a Win/Loss record of 0-1 this season, Walter's 3.80 ERA speaks to his potential. The advanced projections suggest he may have faced some bad luck, as his 2.53 xFIP indicates he could improve moving forward. His high groundball rate of 53% might work in his favor against the Cubs, who rank 3rd in MLB with 119 home runs, as Walter aims to keep the ball on the ground.

On the other side, Cade Horton will start for Chicago. While Horton's 3.73 ERA is commendable, he is considered a below-average pitcher according to the projections. His ability to get hitters out is somewhat limited, and he is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs over approximately 4.9 innings, which could put pressure on the Cubs’ offense.

Offensively, the Astros rank 13th overall but excel in batting average, ranking 5th this season. In contrast, the Cubs boast the 4th best offense in MLB, particularly dangerous with their power, ranking 3rd in home runs and 3rd in stolen bases. Given the dynamics at play, the Astros' pitching may need to step up to contain the Cubs’ aggressive offensive approach. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a close contest is anticipated. With both teams showcasing their strengths, this matchup promises to be compelling for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Over the last week, Carson Kelly's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Isaac Paredes has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.3-mph average to last year's 85-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (47% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games at home (+13.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 74 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5, Houston Astros 4.4

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Daikin Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Horton - Cubs
  • Brandon Walter - Astros

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