Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The National League matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs on September 25, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park is set to offer an intriguing duel on the mound. The Phillies, boasting a strong 93-65 record, are closing in on a playoff berth, while the Cubs, sitting at an average 81-77, are out of postseason contention.

Cristopher Sanchez, the Phillies' projected starter and the #22 pitcher in the rankings, takes the mound as the home team's ace. Holding a solid 3.25 ERA and a respectable 11-9 record, Sanchez is expected to give Philadelphia an edge, especially given the Cubs' struggles against pitchers with good control. With the Cubs ranking 6th in walks, their patience might be tested against Sanchez's low 5.9% walk rate.

Meanwhile, Javier Assad will lead the Cubs' efforts from the mound. Despite his respectable 3.34 ERA, his 4.60 xFIP indicates some underlying vulnerabilities, suggesting he's been fortunate this season. Assad’s projections aren't in his favor either, with expectations of allowing 2.8 earned runs and only managing 3.8 strikeouts on average.

Offensively, the Phillies hold an advantage with their lineup ranked 4th in MLB. Their power is evident with a 7th-place ranking in home runs, and J.T. Realmuto's recent performance should add a spark, boasting a .316 average and a 1.034 OPS over the past week. The Cubs, while ranking 13th, can still be a threat if Mike Tauchman continues his hot streak, hitting .400 with a 1.300 OPS over the last week.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Phillies a 66% chance of victory, aligning with their implied win probability as big favorites. This clash, the third in the series, promises to deliver another exciting chapter in the late-season drama.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's sinker percentage has increased by 5.3% from last year to this one (29.8% to 35.1%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Cody Bellinger, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's fastball velocity has spiked 2.3 mph this season (93.9 mph) over where it was last season (91.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup projects as the 3rd-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 away games (+11.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 33% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.23 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.11

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