Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Tanner Banks - Phillies

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the playoff race heats up, the Philadelphia Phillies host the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park on September 24, 2024, in a National League matchup that could have significant implications for both teams. With a 93-64 record, the Phillies are having an excellent season and are well-positioned for a postseason run. Meanwhile, the Cubs, at 80-77, are battling for a potential Wild Card spot, making every game crucial at this stage.

The Phillies took the first game of the series, and they'll look to continue their momentum with Tanner Banks on the mound. While Banks ranks as the 153rd best starting pitcher in MLB, his peripheral stats suggest he may have been a bit unlucky this year. His ERA stands at 3.78, but his FIP of 3.25 indicates potential for improvement. Opposing him is Justin Steele, the Cubs' ace, ranked 15th in the league. Steele's 3.03 ERA is excellent, though his 3.62 xFIP hints at some luck this season.

Offensively, the Phillies boast the 5th best lineup in MLB, with top-tier rankings in batting average and home runs. Nick Castellanos has been on a tear recently, hitting .385 with a 1.082 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Cubs' offense is ranked 13th, with recent standout performances from Mike Tauchman, who has a .429 average and a 1.524 OPS over the past week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a 52% win probability, slightly higher than the betting market suggests. Their strong offensive lineup and solid bullpen, ranked 10th, could provide the edge they need. The Cubs' bullpen, ranked 21st, could be a vulnerability in a game that promises to be tightly contested.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 14th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Seiya Suzuki has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 95.1-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Tanner Banks will "start" for Philadelphia Phillies in today's matchup but will server as an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Bryce Harper has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 28.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 22.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+16.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 away games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.95 Units / 83% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.74 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.13

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