Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 9/23/2024

• Date: September 23, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nate Pearson - Cubs
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park on September 23, 2024, there's plenty at stake in this National League matchup. The Phillies, boasting a strong 92-64 record, are having a stellar season and are well-positioned for a playoff run. Meanwhile, the Cubs sit at an average 80-76, and while they haven't been eliminated from playoff contention, they face an uphill battle.

Philadelphia will send Aaron Nola to the mound, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Nola's 3.54 ERA and 12-8 record this season underscore his effectiveness. However, his 4.04 FIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression. The Cubs counter with Nate Pearson, who has bounced between starting and bullpen duties. Pearson's 4.71 ERA is higher than his 3.77 xFIP, hinting he's been unlucky and could perform better than his numbers suggest.

The Phillies' offense, ranked 4th best overall, is a force to be reckoned with, especially with Nick Castellanos in fine form, hitting .333 with two home runs and a .950 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Cubs' offense ranks 13th, with Mike Tauchman providing a spark, boasting a .500 average and a 1.964 OPS in the past week.

With Philadelphia's bullpen ranked 9th and Chicago's languishing at 26th, the late innings could prove pivotal. The Phillies are the favorites, with a moneyline of -170, and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 63% win probability. The Cubs, as +150 underdogs, will need to overcome the odds and Philadelphia's home-field advantage to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Nate Pearson to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With a 0.74 deviation between Aaron Nola's 8.75 K/9 and his 9.49 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to positively regress going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 84 games (+17.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 away games (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.09 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5

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