Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals Pick & Prediction – 7/26/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs prepare to face off on July 26, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, both teams bring distinct narratives to this Interleague matchup. The Royals, with a solid 56-47 record, are having an above-average season and are poised to continue their strong performance. Meanwhile, the Cubs, sitting at 49-55, have had a tough season and are looking to turn things around.

Kansas City's Brady Singer, who ranks as the #86 best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, will take the mound. Singer has been a reliable starter this season with a 6-6 record, an impressive 3.00 ERA, and an xFIP of 3.54, suggesting he might face some regression. His projected stats for today include pitching 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 5.0 batters. The Royals' offense, ranked 13th best this season, should provide ample run support. They excel in team batting average (#11) and stolen bases (#8).

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled with a 2-8 record and a dismal 6.69 ERA. Despite his ERA, his xFIP of 4.49 indicates he's been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Hendricks is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allow 3.1 earned runs, and strike out 3.3 batters. Chicago's offense, however, ranks 21st overall, and they have struggled in team batting average (#23) and home runs (#23), although they do match Kansas City in stolen bases (#8).

In their last games, the Royals got a boost from Bobby Witt Jr., who has been on a tear over the past week with a .696 batting average and 1.905 OPS. The Cubs' Miguel Amaya has also been hot, hitting .667 with a 1.394 OPS over his last five games.

Kansas City's bullpen, ranked 16th in the Power Rankings, offers an average level of support, while the Cubs' bullpen struggles at 28th. This disparity could be a key factor as the game progresses. The Royals are the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% chance of victory. Given the advanced metrics and current form, Kansas City looks well-positioned to exploit the Cubs' weaknesses and secure a win in this series opener.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Tallying 14.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Kyle Hendricks places him the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mike Tauchman is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer's sinker utilization has dropped by 12% from last season to this one (51.1% to 39.1%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Adam Frazier is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Collectively, Kansas City Royals bats have not performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 2nd-worst in the game.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 34 games (+25.40 Units / 75% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.8 vs Kansas City Royals 5.26

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