2024 Olympic Men's 100m Breaststroke Predictions: Can Adam Peaty Repeat as Olympic Champion?
Updated November 5, 2026
Updated November 5, 2026
Adam Peaty heads into the Paris Olympics looking to accomplish something remarkable: win his third consecutive gold medal in the men's 100m breaststroke.
The British swimming star dominated this event at both the Rio and Tokyo Olympics, but his path to another title looks considerably more challenging this time around.
China's Haiyang Qin arrives as the reigning world champion, while American Nic Fink and several previous Olympic medalists are capable of challenging for the podium.
With Peaty the betting favorite and Qin close behind, the men's 100m breaststroke promises to be one of the most competitive swimming events in Paris.
Here, we break down the pre-race odds, leading contenders, and our prediction for the gold medal.
Adam Peaty enters the event as the favorite at -145, followed closely by Haiyang Qin at +110.
The gap between those two swimmers and the rest of the field is substantial, with Nic Fink the third favorite at +900.
Here are the gold medal odds available ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Swimmer | Gold Medal Odds |
|---|---|
Adam Peaty | -145 |
Haiyang Qin | +110 |
Nic Fink | +900 |
Arno Kamminga | +1600 |
Evgenii Somov | +2000 |
Nicolo Martinenghi | +2000 |
Jiajun Sun | +2500 |
Sam Williamson | +2500 |
Melvin Imoudu | +3000 |
Charlie Swanson | +8000 |
Joshua Yong | +10000 |
Caspar Corbeau | +10000 |
Berkay Ogretir | +10000 |
Historical odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, published July 25, 2024. These prices are preserved for reference and are no longer available.
The market suggests a two-swimmer race for gold.
Peaty's -145 odds imply a probability of approximately 59.2%, while Qin's +110 price represents an implied probability of 47.6%.
Those percentages include the sportsbook's margin, but they demonstrate how closely the two leading contenders are rated.
Peaty has the Olympic pedigree and world record. Qin has the more recent world championship success.
That contrast makes this matchup particularly interesting.
Adam Peaty has been the dominant force in men's 100m breaststroke swimming for nearly a decade.
He won Olympic gold in Rio in 2016 and successfully defended his title at the Tokyo Games in 2021.
His victory in Tokyo came by more than half a second, a considerable margin in an event decided over just two lengths of the pool.
Peaty also holds the world record of 56.88 seconds, set in 2019.
His combination of explosive starts, powerful strokes, and exceptional speed has made him one of the greatest breaststroke swimmers in history.
However, his road to Paris hasn't been straightforward.
Injuries and time away from competition have interrupted his dominance, while new challengers have emerged.
Peaty remains capable of producing an exceptional performance, but winning a third straight Olympic title will require him to overcome a field considerably stronger than the odds might initially suggest.
Haiyang Qin has established himself as one of the world's leading breaststroke swimmers.
At the 2023 World Aquatics Championships in Fukuoka, Japan, Qin won gold in the 50m, 100m, and 200m breaststroke events.
His performance in the 100m was particularly significant because it demonstrated his ability to challenge the standards established by Peaty.
Qin combines excellent technique with the speed and endurance required to compete at the highest level.
His recent success makes him a serious threat to Peaty's Olympic reign.
The main question is whether he can reproduce his world championship form under the pressure of an Olympic final.
At +110, Qin offers a positive return for bettors willing to back him against the defending champion.
American Nic Fink enters the event as the third favorite at +900.
Fink has enjoyed considerable success in international swimming, but his career stands out for another reason.
Alongside his training and competition schedule, he works as an engineer.
Balancing a professional career with elite swimming is unusual at this level, particularly when competing against athletes who devote their full schedules to the sport.
Fink has the experience and ability to challenge for a medal.
Although he faces a difficult task against Peaty and Qin, his consistency makes him one of the most interesting contenders outside the two favorites.
The leading contenders are Peaty, Qin, and Fink, but several other swimmers deserve attention.
Arno Kamminga of the Netherlands won silver behind Peaty at the Tokyo Olympics.
His previous Olympic performance demonstrates that he can compete under the pressure of a major final.
Kamminga will need to deliver one of his strongest swims to challenge for gold, but another podium finish is a realistic possibility.
Italy's Nicolo Martinenghi claimed bronze in the men's 100m breaststroke at Tokyo.
He has also established himself as a consistent performer in major international competitions.
At +2000, Martinenghi is priced considerably longer than the two favorites despite his experience and proven ability to perform in championship races.
His chances may depend on producing an excellent start and maintaining his speed through the closing stages.
Evgenii Somov, Jiajun Sun, Sam Williamson, and Melvin Imoudu are among the other swimmers hoping to challenge the established medal contenders.
The 100m breaststroke is a short event where small technical differences can have a significant impact.
A strong start, clean turn, or particularly effective finish could be enough to separate several swimmers competing for the podium.
The men's 100m breaststroke requires a combination of explosive speed, technical precision, and the ability to maintain efficiency throughout the race.
Three factors could prove particularly important in Paris.
The start and underwater phase: A strong reaction and effective underwater pullout can establish an early advantage. Against closely matched competitors, even a small lead can matter.
The turn: With only one turn in the 100m event, swimmers have limited opportunities to gain time. An efficient approach, turn, and push-off can influence the outcome.
The final 25 meters: Maintaining technique and stroke efficiency under fatigue is essential. Swimmers who lose speed in the closing stages can surrender valuable positions.
Peaty's experience and proven speed make him a formidable opponent, but Qin's recent performances suggest he has the tools to challenge the British champion throughout the race.
Adam Peaty deserves his position as the favorite.
His Olympic record is exceptional, and his world-record performance demonstrates just how high his ceiling is in this event.
However, Haiyang Qin has emerged as a genuine challenger.
The Chinese swimmer's outstanding performances at the 2023 World Aquatics Championships established him as one of the strongest breaststroke competitors in the world.
His success across multiple distances also highlights the quality of his technique and overall conditioning.
At +110, Qin offers a more attractive potential return than Peaty, although the difference in price is relatively modest.
The key will be matching Peaty's speed early in the race and maintaining his efficiency through the final 25 meters.
If Qin can remain close heading into the closing stages, he has the ability to challenge for the gold medal.
→ Our Take: Peaty's experience makes him a dangerous favorite, but Qin's recent world championship form is difficult to overlook. We expect a close race between the two, with Qin offering the better value at the available historical odds.
Our Pick: Haiyang Qin to Win Gold (+110)
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Historical article: This prediction reflects the information and betting odds available on July 25, 2024, before the Paris Olympic men's 100m breaststroke competition. It does not incorporate the eventual race results.
Updated November 5, 2026