Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On May 15, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park. As the home team, the Braves will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. This National League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, who has been solid this season. He has a win-loss record of 3-0 and an ERA of 3.14, which is great. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. Morton is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings and strike out 5.9 batters on average in today's game.

On the other side, the Cubs will start right-handed pitcher Javier Assad. Assad has also had a good season, with a win-loss record of 3-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.70. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Assad is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings and strike out 3.6 batters on average.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Braves have the 6th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cubs rank 24th. This could give the Braves an advantage late in the game.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. The Cubs, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%.

Overall, the Braves have been performing well this season and have a strong offense to support their pitching. However, the Cubs have had a good season themselves and will look to challenge the Braves in this matchup. It should be an exciting game to watch.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all SPs, Javier Assad's fastball spin rate of 2025 rpm ranks in the 7th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Nico Hoerner's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.54 ft/sec last year to 27.86 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton has averaged 18.4 outs per GS this year, placing in the 94th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Despite posting a .434 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has had some very good luck given the .092 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .342.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 16 games (+13.95 Units / 78% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+13.15 Units / 82% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.44 vs Atlanta Braves 5.56

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