Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/19/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox are set to face off in an American League East matchup on June 19, 2024, at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, with a season record of 35-38, are having a below-average season, while the Red Sox, standing at 39-35, are performing above average. This game marks the third in their series.

The Blue Jays will start Kevin Gausman, who has been solid despite some bad luck this season. Gausman’s 4.08 ERA is overshadowed by his 3.36 xFIP, indicating he’s likely to perform better moving forward. He has a 5-5 record over 14 starts and projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and striking out 6.6 batters on average. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place Gausman as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an above-average arm.

On the mound for the Red Sox will be Brayan Bello, who also appears to be better than his 5.00 ERA suggests. Bello's 3.76 xFIP points to some misfortune, and he projects to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.7 innings, with 4.4 strikeouts. Bello holds a 6-4 record in 12 starts and ranks 66th among starting pitchers, according to advanced stats.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled, ranking 19th overall, 21st in batting average, and 27th in home runs. Their best hitter over the last week has been Ernie Clement, posting a .588 batting average and 1.588 OPS. Conversely, the Red Sox boast the 5th best offense, excelling in batting average (5th) and stolen bases (5th), with an average ranking in home runs (11th). Ceddanne Rafaela has been on fire, hitting .615 with a 1.489 OPS over the past week.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 19th, while the Red Sox’s bullpen struggles at 28th. This could be pivotal in a close game, as betting markets suggest, with Toronto's moneyline at -130 and Boston's at +110. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring affair.

Overall, the Blue Jays have a slight edge according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, and betting markets reflect this with an implied win probability of 54%. With both starting pitchers looking to outperform their current ERAs, this matchup could hinge on late-game bullpen performance and timely hitting.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has utilized his non-fastballs 17.4% more often this season (60.5%) than he did last year (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Rafael Devers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.9-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, David Hamilton, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph fall off from last season's 94.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Justin Turner tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Toronto Blue Jays bats as a unit rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 2nd-worst) when assessing their 87.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+7.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+8.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.60 Units / 194% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.72 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.61

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