Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 4/29/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on April 29, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are currently navigating uneven seasons, with the Blue Jays holding a record of 13-15 and the Red Sox at 16-14. The Blue Jays’ struggles at the plate are evident, as they rank 23rd in MLB offensively and sit at 29th in home runs, while the Red Sox boast a 7th overall ranking with solid numbers in batting average and home runs.

In their last game, the Blue Jays fell short against their rivals, which no doubt adds pressure as they look to turn their season around. Bowden Francis is projected to take the mound for Toronto, bringing a 2-3 record and a solid 3.58 ERA this year. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, with a higher xFIP of 4.16, hinting at potential struggles ahead. Francis's ability to keep the ball on the ground could play into his favor against a Red Sox lineup that boasts the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB.

On the other hand, Garrett Crochet is set to pitch for Boston, where he has been stellar with a 1.95 ERA and ranks as the 10th best starting pitcher in baseball according to advanced stats. Despite his effectiveness, Crochet might face an uphill battle against a low-strikeout Blue Jays offense, which has seen improved performance recently. The projections suggest a close contest, with the Blue Jays recently being undervalued at a moneyline of +130, giving them an implied team total of just 3.42 runs. Given the matchups and Francis's potential edge against the Red Sox's strikeout tendencies, this game could be more competitive than the odds suggest.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet's four-seamer rate has fallen by 7.1% from last year to this one (53.7% to 46.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Typically, batters like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bowden Francis.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rafael Devers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Andres Gimenez is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.60 Units / 215% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.06, Toronto Blue Jays 4.04

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

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