Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox clash on September 19, 2024, both teams find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture in the American League East. The Rays, sporting a 74-78 record, are having an average season, while the Red Sox, notching a 76-76 record, share a similar fate. This game at Tropicana Field marks the third in the series between these division rivals.

The Rays will send Zack Littell to the mound, a right-hander who has had a slightly favorable run with a 3.73 ERA over 26 starts, though his 4.36 xERA suggests some luck has been involved. He faces a Red Sox lineup ranked 5th in team batting average and overall offensive prowess, capable of causing problems for the average hurler.

Brayan Bello, the Red Sox's right-handed starter, boasts a 14-7 record with a 4.60 ERA, though his 3.90 xFIP indicates potential for improved performance. His high groundball rate (52%) might neutralize the Rays' power-deficient lineup, which ranks 27th in home runs. The Rays' strengths lie in their elite bullpen, ranked 3rd, which could be crucial in a projected low-scoring affair with a game total set at 7.5 runs.

While betting markets see this as an evenly matched contest with both teams at -110, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the slight edge to the Red Sox with a 53% win probability. Given their superior offensive metrics and Bello's potential for a strong outing, the Red Sox appear to have a slight advantage in this divisional showdown.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Brayan Bello (50.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 GB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Triston Casas is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's change-up usage has increased by 5.1% from last season to this one (18% to 23.1%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Josh Lowe has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 99.6-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.51 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.96

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