The Boston Red Sox (83-70) will face the Tampa Bay Rays (75-78) at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Boston is clinging to the final Wild Card spot in the American League going into this weekend’s action and they are expected to win this game with their ace on the mound. Here, I break down this AL East contest and give you my Red Sox vs Rays prediction for tonight.
Our Red Sox vs Rays Pick
- Pick: Red Sox Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: FDSSUN and NESN
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Garrett Crochet (16-5, 2.63 ERA) leads the Red Sox’s rotation with an impressive strikeout rate of 11.3 K/9 innings. His consistency and ability to control the game make him a so tough for opposing batters to figure out. Crochet has been excellent down the stretch for Boston and will try to remain that way in this contest.
Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.74 ERA) has been a reliable starter for the Rays. He has a WHIP of 1.00 and a K/9 rate of 7.6. While Rasmussen has been effective, Crochet’s dominance on the mound gives the Red Sox an edge.
Recent Team Streaks
The Red Sox have been inconsistent lately. They have lost three of their last five games and will need to play better baseball if they want to avoid being caught by the teams below them in the Wild Card race. The Rays have won two games in a row and will look to build on that here against the Red Sox. Tampa is trying to avoid elimination from playoff contention this weekend and they need to keep winning for that to happen.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Trevor Story | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Junior Caminero | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston holds an 8-2 lead over the Rays in their season series this year.
- Boston has won six straight games over the Rays.
- Boston is 28-18 over division opponents this season.
- Tampa is 18-25 against AL East competition this year.
Red Sox vs Rays Model Projection
- Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Rays 3
- Win Probability: Red Sox 55%, Rays 45%
Final Thoughts
The Red Sox’s superior pitching and offensive consistency provide them with the advantage in this matchup. With Garrett Crochet on the mound and key hitters like Trevor Story leading the offense, Boston is poised to secure a crucial win against Tampa Bay. Bettors should consider backing the Red Sox to win this game on the moneyline. Those who are more risk-tolerant might want to play the Sox on the moneyline as a favorite, as I project them winning by at least two runs here.
