Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 7/21/2025

Monday night’s interleague showdown pits the Boston Red Sox against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are favored to win this game with their ace on the mound. But Boston has been playing excellent baseball of late and could be a threat to pull off the upset. Continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Phillies prediction for Monday night.

Our Red Sox vs Phillies Pick

• Pick: Boston Red Sox +1.5
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies
• Date & Time: Monday, July 21, 2025, 6:45 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler (BOS) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Broadcast: NBCS‑PH and NESN

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

Walker Buehler has been inconsistent this season. He is 6–6 and has a 6.12 ERA. His ceiling is high but his floor has been extremely low throughout this season. Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler comes into this start at 9–3 with a 2.36 ERA. He has been steady all year and is a legitimate difference‑maker. Here he look to slow down the red-hot Red Sox.

Bullpen Usage

Boston’s bullpen ranks fifth in the league in bullpen ERA. Philadelphia’s bullpen is in the bottom 10 in the majors in that category. Wheeler gives the Phillies the starting pitching advantage. But the bullpen edge belongs to the Red Sox.

Recent Team Streaks

• Red Sox: Boston is 8–2 straight up in their past 10 games. They ended a two-game losing streak by winning the finale of their series with the Chicago Cubs.
• Phillies: Philadelphia is 2–3 in their last five games. They most recently lost two of three to the Los Angeles Angels.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first of three games that these teams will play against each other this season.
• The Phillies are 31-18 at home. Boston is 22-27 on the road for the year.
• Boston has been held to four or fewer runs in four of its last five games.
• Philly has allowed five runs or more in four of its last five games.

Red Sox vs Phillies Model Projection

Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Red Sox 4

Win Probability: Phillies 67%, Red Sox 33%

Final Thoughts

I do think that the Phillies ultimately win this game at home. But I recommend taking the Red Sox to cover the runline tonight. Boston is playing some of the best baseball in the majors right now. And while they may not be able to overcome their starting pitching disadvantage in this game, they should be able to keep this game close thanks to their stellar bullpen.

Final recommendation: Take the Red Sox +1.5 and consider Over 8.5 in this game featuring two lineups that can each do plenty of damage.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.