Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 7/23/2025

The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies face off in the final game of their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series and will look to complete the sweep. But the Phillies will have to overcome a starting pitching disadvantage to get the win here. Continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Phillies prediction for Wednesday night.

Our Red Sox vs Phillies Pick

• Pick: Red Sox to win
• Confidence: 4 stars
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5/5

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Red Sox vs Phillies
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 23, 2025, 7:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Lucas Giolito (BOS) vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Broadcast: ESPN

Key Storylines

• Pitching Form: Lucas Giolito is 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA this year. He has been solid for the Red Sox. But he’s coming off a start where he allowed four earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Cubs. Jesús Luzardo is 8-5 with a 4.29 ERA. He has struggled to find consistency throughout the season and he will look to get right in this contest.
• Bullpen Usage: Both bullpens have been effective so far in this series. There have been five runs scored in each of the first two games and the effectiveness of the bullpens has been a big reason for that.
• Recent Team Streaks: The Phillies have won the first two games of the series and have won three of their last four games. The Red Sox have dropped four of their last five games coming into this series finale in Philly.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Phillies are 2-0 against the Red Sox this season.
• This is the final game of the regular season series between the Sox and Phillies.
• The under has hit in each of the first two games between these teams in 2025.

Red Sox vs Phillies Model Projection

• Score Projection: Red Sox 6 – Phillies 5
• Win Probability: Red Sox 50.7%, Phillies 49.3%

Final Thoughts

The Phillies have had a better season than the Red Sox so far. But I am going to take the Red Sox as an underdog to salvage a game against the Phillies here. Giolito has pitched well for the Red Sox this year. I expect that to continue, while Luzardo’s lack of consistency on the bump will once again play a role for the hosts tonight.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.