Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 7/28/2025
The Boston Red Sox will visit the Minnesota Twins on Monday night at Target Field in Minneapolis. The Twins took two out of three games the first time these teams met this season. But the Red Sox are playing better baseball coming into this three-game set. Keep reading to get my thoughts on this American League matchup, including my Red Sox vs Twins prediction for Monday night.
Our Red Sox vs Twins Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Twins to win
- Confidence: 3 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Richard Fitts vs Simeon Woods Richardson
- Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: MNNT and NESN
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
- Red Sox: Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA)
- Twins: Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA)
Richard Fitts has struggled this season for the Red Sox. He comes into this game with a 1-4 record and a 4.86 ERA. He allowed four runs over 3.1 innings against the Phillies in his last start. Simeon Woods Richardson has been slightly more reliable. He has a 5-4 record and a 4.14 ERA. Woods Richardson is 4-2 and has a 3.12 ERA at Target Field for the year.
Key Players
- Red Sox: Wilyer Abreu (20 HR, .243 AVG, 55 RBI)
- Twins: Byron Buxton (23 HR, .282 AVG, 59 RBI)
Abreu leads the Red Sox in home runs this season. Buxton provides similar power for the Twins. Both players will be incredibly important in their respective lineups and a home run from either of them could change the course of this game completely.
Recent Team Streaks
- Red Sox: The Red Sox have won three of their last four games. They took two of three from the Dodgers at home in their last series.
- Twins: The Twins have lost three of their last four. They dropped two out of three to the Washington Nationals over the weekend.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Wilyer Abreu | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Twins have won two out of three games against the Red Sox so far this season.
- Two of the three games between these teams this year have gone under their totals.
- Boston is 23-29 on the road for the season.
- Minnesota is 29-22 at home on the year.
Red Sox vs Twins Model Projection
- Score Projection: Red Sox 4 – Twins 5
- Win Probability: Red Sox 48%, Twins 52%
Final Thoughts
The Minnesota Twins have two major advantages going into this series opener with the Boston Red Sox. The Twins have been dominant at home this season and are at home for this game. The Twins should also be able to take advantage of the struggles of Fitts on the mound for Boston. I will take the Twins to win this game and to get their 30th home win of the 2025 season.
