Boston Red Sox VS Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Chase Silseth - Angels
• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 145, Angels 1.5 -170
• Money Line: Red Sox -110, Angels -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 50%
• Los Angeles Angels - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 49.28%
• Los Angeles Angels - 50.72%

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated matchup on April 7, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Boston Red Sox at Angel Stadium. The Angels, with a season record of 4-3, are having a good start to the year, while the Red Sox boast an impressive 6-2 record, indicating a great season so far.

The Angels, as the home team, will rely on their projected starting pitcher, Chase Silseth, a right-handed pitcher. Silseth's performance this season has been below average, with an ERA of 9.00. However, his 2.99 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Red Sox will start Tanner Houck, another right-handed pitcher. Houck has been performing well with an ERA of 0.00, although his 0.73 xERA indicates a potential regression in his performance.

When it comes to offensive rankings, the Angels are ranked 28th in MLB this season, indicating a poor performance overall. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 12th, and team home runs, ranking an impressive 3rd. The Red Sox, on the other hand, rank 23rd in MLB, indicating a mediocre performance. However, they boast a strong team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league.

Analyzing the matchup, Tanner Houck's high-strikeout abilities (47.6 K%) work in his favor against the high-strikeout Angels offense, which ranks 6th in most strikeouts in MLB. Additionally, Houck's high-groundball rate (82 GB%) may pose a challenge to the powerful Angels offense, which has hit 177 home runs this season, ranking 3rd in the league.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in this matchup. The betting markets predict a close game, with both the Angels and the Red Sox having a -110 moneyline, suggesting a 50% implied win probability for each team.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all major league parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Chase Silseth will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nolan Schanuel has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+11.59 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 67 away games (+5.68 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+6.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 4.26 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.06

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