Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/9/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Kelly - Red Sox
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As we head into the fourth game of their series, the Boston Red Sox are set to face off against the struggling Chicago White Sox on June 9, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Red Sox, who hold a 32-33 record, are looking to bounce back from a surprising 6-1 defeat to the White Sox in their last outing on June 8. Meanwhile, the White Sox, with a dismal 17-48 record, are hoping to carry the momentum from their underdog victory, where they overcame a heavy -235 moneyline odds, to take another game in this series.

Projected starters Chris Flexen and Zack Kelly both have interesting dynamics heading into this matchup. Flexen, who has an unfortunate 2-5 record and a 5.19 ERA, has demonstrated through peripheral stats like his 4.64 xERA that he might be due for some positive regression. Notably, in his last start on June 4, Flexen pitched a solid game, allowing just 1 earned run over 5 innings. Flexen will need all the help he can get, as the White Sox's offense ranks as the worst in MLB in batting average and overall performance.

Kelly, set to make the start for Boston, has appeared primarily out of the bullpen this year, holding a stellar 2.04 ERA over 13 appearances. However, with a 4.39 xFIP, projections suggest this might not be sustainable. The control issues (13.2% BB rate) could also play a significant role, although the White Sox's impatience at the plate (2nd fewest walks in MLB) might mitigate this advantage for Chicago.

The Red Sox bring a strong offense to the field, ranked 7th best in MLB, complemented by standout performances from Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers. Devers, in particular, has been exceptional over the last week with a .333 batting average and 3 home runs, showcasing exactly why Boston should be able to exploit the weak White Sox bullpen ranked 27th in the league.

The betting lines favor Boston as -160 favorites, with an implied win probability of 60%. The BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, giving Boston a 56% likelihood of taking the game. With both offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard and neither bullpen inspiring much confidence, the game total of 9 runs suggests we could be in for an offensive showdown. While the White Sox pulled off an upset last night, the projections lean toward a Red Sox rebound in this series finale.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Zack Kelly should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Enmanuel Valdez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen grades out as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen's 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 12th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Andrew Vaughn's speed has gotten better this year. His 25.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.36 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Lenyn Sosa has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Paul DeJong has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+24.35 Units / 87% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.19 vs Chicago White Sox 4

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