Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 8/28/2025
The Boston Red Sox have won the first three games of their four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles this week. They will look to secure a sweep on Thursday afternoon at Camden Yards. Boston enters this game the favorite behind their ace starting pitcher and will look to dominate the O’s once again. Before the first pitch from Baltimore, continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Orioles prediction for today’s game.
Our Red Sox vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 28, 2025, 1:05 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs Cade Povich (BAL)
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: MASN and NESN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Boston sends lefty Garrett Crochet to the mound for this matinee. He has a 14-5 record with a 2.38 ERA and an impressive 207 strikeouts across 166.1 innings. He threw eight scoreless innings in his lone appearance against the Orioles earlier this season and will be expected to perform well against them here. Baltimore will counter with Cade Povich. Povich has struggled at 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. His August ERA remains over 5.00 and the Orioles have lost all four games he has started this month.
Key Players
Ceddanne Rafaela was the hero for Boston on Wednesday night. He hit a two-run home run in the top of the ninth to give Boston a lead that they held onto for good. He will be an important piece of the Boston lineup again today. Baltimore is just looking for any offensive player to step up after scoring a total of five runs through the first three games of this series.
Recent team streaks
Boston is riding a three-game win streak and has won six of its last seven. Baltimore has lost three games in a row and five of its last six.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Gunnar Henderson | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Red Sox hold a 7-5 lead over the Orioles in their season series so far.
- This is the final game of the regular-season series between these AL East rivals.
- Boston has outscored Baltimore 12-5 through the first three games of this four-game set.
Red Sox vs Orioles Model Projection
| Score Projection | Boston 6 – Baltimore 4 |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | Boston 60%, Baltimore 40% |
Final Thoughts
My expectation is for the Boston Red Sox to complete a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday afternoon. Crochet is pitching better than just about anyone in baseball right now and should be able to shut down an Orioles offense that has struggled throughout this series. I recommend laying the runline with the Red Sox, who could be within 3.5 games of first place in the AL East by the end of the day.
