Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 6/16/2025

On June 16, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Baltimore Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field in an American League East showdown. Currently, the Rays sit at 39-32, enjoying an above-average season, while the Orioles are struggling at 30-40. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams, and it holds significance as both teams seek to gain ground in the standings.

In their last outing, the Rays displayed their offensive prowess, but it’s the pitching matchup that could tilt the game in Tampa Bay's favor. Ryan Pepiot, projected to start for the Rays, has had a rocky season with a 3-6 record and a stellar ERA of 3.31. However, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for a regression, given his 3.94 xFIP. On the other hand, Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Orioles, boasting a solid 6-2 record, but his ERA of 4.08 indicates he could be on the verge of improvement since his 3.46 xERA suggests he’s been unlucky.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the projections indicate a close contest. The Rays have an implied team total of 4.66 runs, while the Orioles sit at 4.34 runs. Given their stronger bullpen, ranked 8th compared to the 6th of the Orioles, Tampa Bay seems poised to capitalize on their home advantage and secure a victory in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Cedric Mullins are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Over the past two weeks, Josh Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.18 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+11.03 Units / 37% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.85, Tampa Bay Rays 4.12

• Date: June 16, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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