Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 8/4/2025
The Baltimore Orioles will visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies are locked into a tight race in the NL East standings and the Orioles are wallowing at the bottom of the AL East. Here, I break down this contest in the betting markets and make my Orioles vs Phillies prediction for Monday night.
Our Orioles vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Phillies -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies |
| Date & Time | August 4, 2025, 6:45 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Cade Povich vs. Jesus Luzardo |
| Stadium | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Broadcast | MLB.tv |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: Cade Povich will get the start for Baltimore against Philadelphia’s Jesus Luzardo. Povich is 2-5 this season with a 5.15 ERA. He is averaging over a strikeout per inning but is also giving up over a hit per inning. Luzardo is 9-5 and has a 4.31 ERA. He threw seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox in his last start and will look to build on that in this game against another last-place team.
Team Momentum: The Phillies are coming off a shutout win over the Tigers and Philly won two out of three games against Detroit in that series. The Orioles recently lost to the Cubs on a walk-off homer by Justin Turner. Baltimore lost two of three games to the Cubs and have lost three of their last four games overall.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Bryce Harper | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Bryce Harper | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
This is the first game these teams have played against each other this year.
Philadelphia is 35-20 at home so far this season.
Baltimore has gone 24-34 on the road in 2025.
The Orioles have gone three straight games without scoring five runs offensively.
Orioles vs Phillies Model Projection
Projected Score: Phillies 5 – Orioles 3
Win Probability: Phillies 65% | Orioles 35%
Final Thoughts
I am going to lay the runline with the Philadelphia Phillies at home in their matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. The Phillies are playing solid baseball and their only loss to the Tigers came against the incomparable Tarik Skubal. I am expecting a solid outing from Luzardo in this game and for the Phillies to continue playing well at home.
