Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As September 27, 2024, rolls around, the Minnesota Twins are set to host the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field in an American League clash that could have significant implications for both teams. The Orioles, with an 88-71 record, are having a solid season, while the Twins, at 82-77, are above average but need every win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pitching is the focal point of this matchup, with the Twins projected to start Pablo Lopez, ranked as the 21st-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a 4.11 ERA, his 3.35 xFIP suggests Lopez has been unlucky this season and might deliver a better performance. The Orioles counter with Cade Povich, who has struggled with a 5.59 ERA across 15 starts. His underlying metrics indicate some unluckiness, but he's yet to translate that into consistent success.

Offensively, the Orioles boast the 5th-best lineup in the league, emphasizing power with a 2nd rank in home runs. Meanwhile, the Twins rank 11th in offense, with an apparent reliance on average performance across the board. Notably, Carlos Correa has been a standout for Minnesota over the last week, hitting .333 with a .990 OPS, showcasing a return to form that the Twins desperately need down the stretch.

Despite the Twins being favored with a -165 moneyline, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees this as a much closer contest, with the Orioles having a 6% higher win probability than what the betting market suggests. This discrepancy presents potential value for bettors willing to back Baltimore as a +145 underdog, capitalizing on the public's reluctance to side with an "ugly underdog." With both teams projected to score heavily, this game promises an exciting battle as the regular season winds down.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich was firing on all cylinders in his last start and compiled 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Cedric Mullins may have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today, Colton Cowser is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (83rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

In terms of his home runs, Willi Castro has experienced some negative variance this year. His 11.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Minnesota's 14.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in MLB this year: #3 overall.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 96 games (+13.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 41 games (+17.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.00 Units / 32% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.09 vs Minnesota Twins 5.01

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