Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on August 31, 2024, at Coors Field, both teams are coming off notable performances. The Rockies are struggling this season with a record of 50-86, while the Orioles are enjoying a strong campaign at 78-58. This matchup is significant, not just for bragging rights, but also as the second game of their series, with the Orioles looking to maintain their momentum after a solid win in their last outing.

Ryan Feltner is slated to start for the Rockies. Despite his struggles this season, with a 1-10 record and a 4.95 ERA, Feltner's 4.17 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. However, he projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs, which spells trouble against a potent Orioles lineup.

Dean Kremer will take the mound for Baltimore. With a 6-9 record and a 4.31 ERA, Kremer has had an average season, but his projections indicate he could allow 3.1 earned runs today as well. Both pitchers are right-handed, which may level the playing field slightly, but the Rockies' offense ranks 17th overall, while Baltimore boasts the 5th best offense in MLB, underscoring the disparity in talent.

The projections favor the Orioles, who are expected to score around 6.73 runs, compared to the Rockies' projected 5.73 runs. Despite this, there's potential value in betting on the Rockies, as they are underdogs with a high implied team total of 5.09 runs. With Brenton Doyle leading the Rockies' offense recently, having recorded 7 hits in the last week, Colorado could surprise if Feltner manages to keep the game competitive.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.3) implies that Gunnar Henderson has been very fortunate this year with his 33.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Feltner to throw 82 pitches in this matchup (8th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brendan Rodgers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the 3rd-most runs (5.76 on average) on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 32 games at home (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 121 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 45% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 6.75 vs Colorado Rockies 5.76

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