Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 8/1/2025
The Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs will open a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon. Chicago enters Friday a game behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Baltimore is at the bottom of the AL East heading into the weekend. Before first pitch from Wrigley, continue reading to get my Orioles vs Cubs prediction for Friday’s game.
Our Cubs vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Friday, August 1, 2025, 2:20 pm ET
- Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs Cade Horton
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: MARQ and MASN2
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Trevor Rogers will start this game on the mound for the Orioles. Rogers has been stellar with 4-1 record and a 1.49 ERA in 48.1 innings. Rogers will look to stay hot in this start against a quality Cubs lineup. Cade Horton owns a 4-3 record and a decent 3.67 ERA. The Cubs are 7‑1 in games he starts and they will look for another win with Horton on the bump.
Key Players
- Chicago: Kyle Tucker leads the lineup with a .391 OBP and solid power. Pete Crow‑Armstrong paces the team with 27 homers and is batting .368 over his last five games.
- Baltimore: Gunnar Henderson leads the Orioles in batting average this season and will look to set up scoring chances for his team. The Orioles rank 13th in MLB in runs scored.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Cubs are 3-2 in their last five games. They most recently dropped two out of three to the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Baltimore is 4-1 in their last five games. They had a four-game winning streak snapped by Toronto on Thursday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Cade Horton | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 |
| Pete Crow‑Armstrong | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first of three games these teams will play against each other this season.
- Three of Baltimore’s last four games have gone over their totals.
- Milwaukee has had three straight games feature 10 or more combined runs.
- Baltimore is 24-24 in day games this season. Chicago is 28-21 in their day games.
Cubs vs Orioles Model Projection
Score Projection: Cubs 5 – Orioles 3
Win Probability: Cubs 58%, Orioles 42%
Final Thoughts
Baltimore has a slight starting pitching advantage with the young Trevor Rogers opening up this game. But the Cubs have a better bullpen and better hitters for Baltimore’s pitching staff to deal with. I think we see the Cubs win this game and hand the Orioles their second straight loss, as Crow-Armstrong is worth a look to go deep in the prop markets for this matchup.
