Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on September 11, 2024, both teams come into this matchup with notable performances fresh in their minds. The Orioles won their last game against the Red Sox, triumphing 5-3 on September 10, and are enjoying a strong season with an 83-63 record, currently sitting atop the American League East. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, with a 73-72 record, are having an average season and will look to turn the tide at Fenway Park.

The projections favor the Red Sox in this contest, with estimates suggesting they could score around 5.15 runs, benefiting from a potent offense that ranks 6th overall in MLB. Jarren Duran is leading the team, showcasing his prowess with a .288 batting average and a solid 0.856 OPS. In recent games, Rob Refsnyder has stepped up, hitting .556 in the past week, further enhancing the team’s offensive firepower.

On the mound, Baltimore will send Dean Kremer to the hill. Despite being a right-handed pitcher, he is considered below average by advanced metrics and has struggled with walks and hits allowed, projecting to give up 3.0 earned runs over 5.1 innings. Conversely, Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox is seen as above average, despite his 5-10 record. His last outing was solid, covering 6 innings with only 1 earned run, which could signal a positive trajectory.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Due to his reverse platoon split, Dean Kremer will benefit from matching up with 6 batters in the projected offense who bat from the other side today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Cedric Mullins is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Baltimore Orioles have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Masataka Yoshida's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 79 of their last 146 games (+18.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.25 Units / 43% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.77 vs Boston Red Sox 5.04

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