Baltimore Orioles vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 4/7/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on April 7, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of their respective seasons with average to disappointing start records. The Diamondbacks are currently 5-5, while the Orioles hold a 4-6 record. Both teams have struggled, but with the Diamondbacks ranked 7th in MLB offensively, there's hope for a turnaround as they face off in this Interleague matchup.

In their last outing, the Diamondbacks had an impressive showing, highlighted by their best hitter's strong performance over the week, including three home runs and a .280 batting average. This offensive strength will test Zach Eflin, who’s projected to start for the Orioles. Eflin, ranked 50th among MLB starters, has shown potential with a solid 3.75 ERA, but his higher 4.41 xFIP suggests he might be due for a regression.

On the other hand, Zac Gallen, projected to start for Arizona, is ranked 34th among MLB starting pitchers and boasts a commendable 3.38 ERA. He’s also had some bad luck with a lower xFIP of 2.66, hinting he could outperform his current numbers. Gallen’s ability to strike out hitters (6.4 projected strikeouts today) should work in his favor against an Orioles offense that, while ranked 13th overall, has some inconsistencies.

With a Game Total of 8.5 runs and both teams looking to gain momentum, the Diamondbacks appear to have the upper hand with a strong offensive ranking and a solid starting pitcher. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.45 runs for Arizona, indicating that they could capitalize on their home advantage while the Orioles look to regroup. Given the current trends, this matchup could tilt in favor of the Diamondbacks, providing an enticing opportunity for bettors.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin's 91.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 17th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Tyler O'Neill's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 97.9-mph average last season has fallen to 94.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball bats like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zach Eflin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 110 games (+27.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 82 of their last 153 games (+16.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.75 Units / 92% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.