Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees Best Bet – 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On September 24, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles in an enticing American League East matchup at Yankee Stadium. With the season winding down, both teams are looking to solidify their positions. The Yankees currently boast a stellar 92-64 record, leading the division while the Orioles sit at a respectable 86-70, still vying for a Wild Card spot.

The Yankees are set to send Clarke Schmidt to the mound. Schmidt has been impressive this season, holding an excellent 2.37 ERA across 14 starts, although his xFIP suggests he might have benefited from some good fortune. His recent performances have been solid, and he'll aim to continue his form. Opposite him, Dean Kremer will start for the Orioles. Despite a below-average season with a 4.19 ERA, Kremer could pose a challenge with his ability to eat innings. However, his tendency to give up fly balls could be problematic against New York's power-packed lineup, which ranks 1st in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Yankees have been a force, ranking 3rd overall with standout performances from Aaron Judge, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .368 with a 1.328 OPS. Meanwhile, the Orioles bring their own power, ranking 2nd in home runs, and have seen solid contributions from Colton Cowser recently.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Yankees hold a slight edge over the Orioles, ranking 15th compared to Baltimore's 18th. With a projected win probability of 59%, supported by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Yankees are favored to take the first game of this series. Bettors will note New York's advantage on the mound and at the plate, making them a compelling pick for this matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.4-mph decline from last year's 94.1-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore's 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball: #3 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Clarke Schmidt is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 94 games (+14.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 38 games (+18.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+11.90 Units / 26% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.37 vs New York Yankees 5.07

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