Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Pick – 3/29/2025

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will host the Atlanta Braves on March 29, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup given each team's current form. The Padres are off to a strong start this season, boasting a 2-0 record, while the Braves are struggling at 0-2. This game marks the third in the series, and the Padres will look to continue their winning ways.

In their last outing, the Braves faced the Padres and fell short, further highlighting their early-season woes. The Padres are projected to start Randy Vasquez, who has been ranked as the 425th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the weaker links in the rotation. Vasquez projects to pitch an average of 4.7 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.8 hits, and 1.6 walks, which could pose challenges for San Diego.

On the other side, the Braves are set to counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, who is expected to enjoy a much better start to the season. Ranked 20th among starting pitchers, Schwellenbach projects to pitch 5.3 innings with a solid average of 2.2 earned runs allowed. This disparity in pitching prowess could give the Braves an edge, despite their rocky start.

The Game Total is currently set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average offensive expectation. However, the projections suggest that the Braves have a higher implied team total of 4.27 runs compared to the Padres' 3.73 runs. Given these dynamics, the Braves may find themselves in a position to turn their season around, while the Padres will aim to maintain their winning momentum at Petco Park.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Randy Vasquez to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 71 games (+17.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 94 of their last 149 games (+38.90 Units / 24% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

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