Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 8/29/2024

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Atlanta Braves on August 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in different tiers of contention within the National League East. The Phillies, currently boasting a record of 78-55, are positioned well in the playoff race, while the Braves hold a solid but less secure 73-60 record, indicating an above-average season. The matchup is particularly critical as it marks the first game in this series and could impact the playoff positioning for both teams.

In their last outings, the Phillies are coming off a blowout loss, while the Braves got a win over the Minnesota Twins. The game at Citizens Bank Park will see Cristopher Sanchez take the mound for the Phillies. Sanchez has emerged as the #30 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, showcasing a decent ERA of 3.51. However, his FIP of 2.83 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season, potentially leading to better outings ahead. Sanchez is a low-walk pitcher, which could play into the hands of the Braves, who exhibit a low-walk approach at the plate.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Charlie Morton, who has been less dominant this season with a 4.24 ERA and a slightly above-average performance. Morton's tendency to generate ground balls will be tested against the powerful Phillies lineup, which ranks 7th in MLB offensively and 3rd in batting average. The projections favor the Phillies, with a high implied team total of 4.62 runs, and recent performances suggest they could indeed capitalize on Morton's weaknesses.

With the stakes high and the Phillies displaying superior offensive depth, this matchup shapes up to be a significant one in the context of the season, particularly for the Phillies as they aim to fortify their position in the playoff race.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (62.1% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball bats like Orlando Arcia are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Over his last 3 games started, Cristopher Sanchez has seen a big drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2120 rpm over the whole season to 2070 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 59 games at home (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 123 games (+30.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 41 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.01 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.97

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