Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 8/28/2025
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will face off to open a four-game series in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This series was expected to help determine which of these teams would win the NL East this year. But only the Phillies find themselves in contention thanks to a disappointing campaign for Atlanta. Before this series opener begins in Philly, you can find my Braves vs Phillies prediction below.
Our Braves vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Over 9.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 28, 2025, 6:45 p.m. EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Cal Quantrill (Braves) vs Aaron Nola (Phillies)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Aaron Nola continues to struggle this season. He has a 2-7 record with a 6.52 ERA. His recent form has been poor with 21 runs allowed over his last four starts. His struggles could continue tonight against a Braves lineup showing signs of life.
Cal Quantrill of Atlanta has a 4-11 record and a 5.51 ERA. That may not inspire confidence as Quantrill’s numbers suggest he can be exploited similarly by a Phillies offense that has cooled off but still has plenty of power. Both starters present exploitable weaknesses going into this game that could yield a high-scoring affair in Philly.
Key Players
My key players for this game are going to be the bullpens on each side. With both starting pitchers struggling as much as they have, we could end up seeing a lot of both bullpens. This contest could come down to which relief pitchers do the best job of preventing runs.
Recent team streaks
- The Braves have won two games in a row and three of their last four coming into this matchup.
- The Phillies have lost three games in a row after being swept by the New York Mets in their last series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Kyle Schwarber | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Aaron Nola | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Phillies hold a 5-4 lead in their season series against the Braves this year.
- This four-game series is the final time these teams will meet during the 2025 regular season.
- Atlanta enters this series at 28-39 on the road for the year.
- Philadelphia is 42-22 at home in 2025.
Braves vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Braves 6 – Phillies 7
Win Probability: Braves 40%, Phillies 60%
Final Thoughts
I think that we are going to see a high-scoring game in Philadelphia tonight. Both starting pitchers have had a hard time performing at a high level this season. That should continue tonight in a game where both offenses have plenty of firepower. I will happily bet the over in this contest and hope for some offensive fireworks in Philly.
