Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Preview – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on August 30, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. The Phillies, boasting a solid record of 79-55, are in contention for a playoff spot and are currently riding a wave of momentum after a recent victory over the Braves on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Braves sit at 73-61, having shown resilience but are not quite in the same competitive realm as their rivals.

On the mound, Ranger Suarez is set to take the hill for the Phillies. With an impressive Win/Loss record of 11-5 and an ERA of 2.82, Suarez ranks as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness this season. However, his 3.38 SIERA suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. Suarez projects to pitch an average of 5.9 innings today, allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs, but he will need to tighten up his control, as he tends to allow 1.8 walks per game.

Opposing him will be Reynaldo Lopez, who has a solid ERA of 2.02 but ranks 74th among MLB starters. Lopez's projections indicate he may struggle to go deep into the game, expected to pitch only 4.9 innings and allow about 2.5 earned runs. Both pitchers face offenses that present contrasting challenges; the Phillies rank 7th in MLB in offensive production, while the Braves are a middle-of-the-pack team, ranking 13th.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are favored to win, with projections suggesting they will score around 4.68 runs compared to the Braves' 3.85. Given their offensive prowess and Suarez's potential to dominate, the Phillies appear to have the edge heading into this crucial game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez projects for an average of 14.7 outs in today's matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

This season, Marcell Ozuna has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.7 mph compared to last year's 96.5 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Atlanta Braves bats as a group have been one of the best in the majors this year (2nd-) when it comes to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

As a result of his reverse platoon split, Ranger Suarez figures to be at an advantage squaring off against 7 bats in the projected offense who bat from the other side in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bryce Harper has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 30.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 20.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 125 games (+28.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 3.77 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.55

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