Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/4/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Boston Red Sox will host the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park on June 4, 2024. The Red Sox, with a record of 30-30, are having an average season so far, while the Braves boast an impressive 33-24 record, placing them in the "great" category.

The Red Sox will rely on right-handed pitcher Kutter Crawford to start the game, while the Braves will counter with their standout left-hander, Max Fried. Crawford, ranked as the #77 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a win/loss record of 2-4 this season with an excellent ERA of 3.29. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could face challenges going forward. On the other hand, Fried, ranked as the #3 best starting pitcher in MLB, has been dominant with a 5-2 record and an impressive 2.97 ERA.

This game marks the first in the series between these two teams, providing an exciting opportunity for both to set the tone. The Red Sox offense, ranked as the #10 best in MLB, showcases their talent with a remarkable team batting average that ranks #3 in the league. However, their team home runs and stolen bases rank average at #18 and #16, respectively. In contrast, the Braves excel in all offensive categories, ranking #1 in both team batting average and home runs. Their team stolen bases also rank highly at #7.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Red Sox find themselves at a disadvantage, ranking as the #27 best in MLB, while the Braves boast a solid bullpen, ranked #10. This could be a crucial factor in the outcome of the game.

According to the current odds, the Red Sox are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +145, giving them a 40% implied win probability. The Braves, as the betting favorites, hold a moneyline of -165, indicating a 60% implied win probability. The Red Sox have a low implied team total of 3.54 runs, while the Braves have a high implied team total of 4.46 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This year, there has been a decline in Sean Murphy's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.03 ft/sec last year to 25.04 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense profiles as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford's 2470-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 85th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Bobby Dalbec has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .215 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 54 games (+6.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+16.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.11 vs Boston Red Sox 3.52

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