Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 4/25/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On April 25, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field in what marks the first game of their series. As both teams are looking to improve their standings, the Diamondbacks currently sit at 14-11, while the Braves struggle with a record of 10-14. The D-Backs are enjoying a solid season, especially considering their offensive prowess, ranking 3rd in MLB. Meanwhile, the Braves have had a tough start, reflected in their Power Rankings, where they sit at 15th for their offensive capabilities.

The Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound, despite his rocky 1-3 record and a concerning ERA of 5.60. However, his 4.45 xFIP suggests he might be due for a turnaround, as he’s been somewhat unlucky this season. Gallen is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs. Conversely, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, who has been similarly underwhelming with a 0-2 record and a 6.17 ERA. His 3.30 xFIP indicates he too has faced bad luck, and he projects to yield about 2.6 earned runs in 5.7 innings.

While Gallen's strikeout rate may be average, he faces a Braves offense that ranks 15th overall and is known for its ability to hit home runs, sitting 8th in that category. However, Sale's high strikeout percentage (29.1%) could be mitigated by the D-Backs' low strikeout rate, potentially favoring Arizona's lineup.

With the Diamondbacks having an average implied team total of 4.15 runs against the Braves' higher total of 4.35, this matchup promises to be competitive. The projections indicate that while the Braves might be favored, the Diamondbacks have the tools to surprise, especially with their strong offensive showing this season.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Over his last 3 games started, Chris Sale has suffered a substantial decrease in his fastball velocity: from 93.7 mph over the whole season to 92 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.4% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.316) suggests that Jorge Barrosa has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .176 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .318, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .336 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 63% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.68, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.32

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.