Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Martin Perez - Pirates

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Atlanta Braves in an exciting National League matchup at PNC Park on May 26, 2024. The Pirates, with a record of 25-28, are having a below-average season so far, while the Braves boast an impressive 29-20 record, making them a force to be reckoned with.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez. Although Perez holds a less than stellar advanced-stat Power Rankings position at #216 out of approximately 350 pitchers, he has started 10 games this year with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.80. However, his 5.37 xERA suggests that he has been somewhat lucky this season and may not perform as well going forward.

The Braves, on the other hand, will be sending their elite left-handed pitcher Chris Sale to start the game. Sale, ranked as the #5 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started 9 games this year with an impressive 7-1 win/loss record and a stellar ERA of 2.22.

In terms of offense, the Pirates rank as the #25 best in MLB this season, with a team batting average ranking of #26 and a team home run ranking of #23. Their stolen base ranking is slightly better at #12. The Braves, on the other hand, have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking #6 overall, with a strong team batting average (#1), home run ranking (#1), and stolen base ranking (#7).

Considering the teams' respective bullpens, the Pirates rank #10 in MLB, while the Braves rank slightly higher at #6. Both teams have solid relief pitching to rely on as the game progresses.

As for the betting odds, the Pirates enter this game as big underdogs with a moneyline of +180, which implies a win probability of 35%. The Braves, as the favorites, have a moneyline of -205 and an implied win probability of 65%. The Pirates have a low team total of 3.52 runs, while the Braves have a high team total of 4.98 runs based on the current odds.

With the Braves' dominant offense and the presence of Chris Sale on the mound, they appear to have a significant advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day. Will the Pirates defy the odds and pull off an upset, or will the Braves continue their winning ways? Only time will tell.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Over his previous 3 games started, Chris Sale has experienced a substantial rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2225 rpm over the entire season to 2275 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Travis d'Arnaud is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .329 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .340 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Martin Perez is expected to rack up an average of 3.9 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Michael A. Taylor's speed has decreased this year. His 28.76 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.82 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games (+16.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.09 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.61

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