Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 5/26/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

May 26, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 26, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
    • Brent Suter - Reds

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Dodgers -205, Reds 180
Runline: Dodgers -1.5 -125, Reds 1.5 105
Over/Under Total: 9 -110

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Los Angeles Dodgers - 65% Los Angeles Dodgers - 65.49%
Cincinnati Reds - 35% Cincinnati Reds - 34.51%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated matchup set to take place on May 26, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will play host to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Great American Ball Park. This National League showdown promises an exciting clash between two teams with contrasting seasons.

The Reds, who currently hold a disappointing record of 22-30, are enduring a tough season. On the other hand, the Dodgers boast an impressive 33-21 record and are considered one of the top teams in the league this year.

Taking the mound for the Reds will be left-handed pitcher Brent Suter. While Suter's ERA of 3.95 is respectable, his peripheral indicator, the 4.59 xERA, suggests that he has been lucky this season and may perform worse going forward. Suter has primarily been used out of the bullpen, making 20 appearances but starting no games.

Opposing Suter will be the Dodgers' right-handed pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto has been exceptional this season with a 5-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.17. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Yamamoto is ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his elite status.

The Reds offense, ranking as the 28th best in MLB, will face a tough challenge against the dominant Dodgers offense, which is ranked 2nd best in the league. While the Reds have shown average performance in team batting average and home runs, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league. On the other hand, the Dodgers showcase their power with the 2nd most home runs this season.

With a projected win probability of 35% according to THE BAT X, the Reds are considered underdogs in this game. The Dodgers, with a projected win probability of 65%, enter as the favorites.

In this exciting matchup, the Reds will look to overcome their struggles and challenge the dominant Dodgers. Can the underdogs defy the odds and secure a victory, or will the powerhouse Dodgers continue their winning ways? Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly watching as these two teams battle it out on the diamond.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (59.2% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

  • A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers grades them out as the #5 offense in the game since the start of last season by this stat.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Elly De La Cruz's quickness has declined this season. His 30.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.98 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.21 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.16

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-212
80% LAD
+177
20% CIN

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-110
9% UN
9.0/-110
91% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-130
92% LAD
+1.5/+110
8% CIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
LAD
Team Stats
CIN
4.26
ERA
4.79
.239
Batting Avg Against
.256
1.24
WHIP
1.41
.288
BABIP
.302
7.8%
BB%
9.5%
23.0%
K%
21.8%
70.6%
LOB%
72.5%
.252
Batting Avg
.250
.456
SLG
.415
.795
OPS
.743
.339
OBP
.327
LAD
Team Records
CIN
28-19
Home
23-27
27-20
Road
22-22
31-29
vRHP
32-33
24-10
vLHP
13-16
25-20
vs>.500
22-34
30-19
vs<.500
23-15
3-7
Last10
6-4
10-10
Last20
10-10
16-14
Last30
14-16
Y. Yamamoto
B. Suter
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

Y. Yamamoto

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

B. Suter

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/7 MIA
Rogers N/A
L1-6 N/A
2.1
4
3
3
2
1
21-39
9/30 LAD
Buehler -248
L2-4 8
1.2
3
3
3
0
5
21-51
9/25 STL
Flaherty
W3-0
4
2
0
0
4
1
36-59
9/16 STL
Oviedo 158
W6-0 7
3
2
0
0
3
2
31-52
9/12 CHC
Hendricks -104
L2-4 8.5
3
1
0
0
6
0
29-43

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
LAD CIN
LAD CIN
Consensus
-222
+182
-212
+177
-198
+164
-205
+170
-210
+176
-205
+172
-205
+170
-230
+190
-195
+162
-215
+178
-225
+180
-210
+170
Open
Current
Book
LAD CIN
LAD CIN
Consensus
-1.5 (-133)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-133)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-134)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-134)
+1.5 (+112)
-1.5 (-136)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-136)
+1.5 (+112)
-1.5 (-140)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-140)
+1.5 (+118)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (-107)
9.0 (-113)
9.0 (-108)
9.0 (-112)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-108)
9.0 (-112)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (+102)
9.0 (-122)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-121)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-130)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)