Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on September 1, 2024, it's an important matchup in the National League East. The Phillies currently hold a strong record of 80-56, while the Braves sit at 74-62, indicating a race for staying competitive as the season winds down. Both teams have had their ups and downs, but the Phillies have been particularly impressive, currently in the midst of a great season.

In their most recent game, the Braves were unable to find success against the Phillies' pitching, which has fueled their momentum. The Phillies are projected to start Aaron Nola, who despite his reputation as a solid right-handed pitcher, has experienced some luck this season. His 3.30 ERA looks great, but his 3.86 FIP suggests he may not be as dominant as the numbers imply. Nola has struck out an average of 5.7 batters per game, but he also struggles with allowing hits, projected at 5.4 today.

On the other hand, Spencer Schwellenbach, also a right-handed pitcher for the Braves, is having a decent season, with a 3.72 ERA that stands up well against Nola's numbers. Schwellenbach has been unlucky, with a favorable 3.08 xFIP indicating he might improve as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Phillies are ranked 7th in MLB, featuring a potent lineup that boasts a 3rd best team batting average. Brandon Marsh has been especially hot of late, leading the team with a .368 average over his last six games. Conversely, the Braves rank 13th, struggling to capitalize on scoring opportunities, notably sitting at 28th in stolen bases.

With the game total set at an average 8.0 runs, the Phillies are favored at -140 on the moneyline, reflecting a strong chance to extend their winning streak against an inconsistent Braves squad.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 65.7% of the time, ranking in the 90th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Whit Merrifield is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Atlanta Braves hitters as a group place 2nd- in the majors for power this year when using their 10.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2349 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2298 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Brandon Marsh has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 94.7-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Marsh has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 121 games (+30.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+16.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.58 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.92

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