Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 7/26/2025
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 2 of their weekend series at PNC Park on Saturday. Arizona arrives as the betting favorite across most sportsbooks. The pitching matchup features Merrill Kelly for Arizona while Pittsburgh will turn to Andrew Heaney. Both pitchers will look to live up to the high standards set by last night’s 1-0 game between these teams. Continue reading to get my Diamondbacks vs Pirates prediction for Saturday.
Our Diamondbacks vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline
- Confidence: 4 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 26, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Andrew Heaney (PIT)
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: SportsNet PT and ARID
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Arizona’s Merrill Kelly offers reliability more than velocity. He works at around 92 mph but is good at inducing ground balls and suboptimal contact. He has a swinging strike rate of 10.8% and a strong chase rate of 31.8%. He has given up just 13 home runs in 122 innings and has a 3.32 ERA. He’s recorded quality starts in 12 of his 21 outings and has gone at least 5 innings reliably in his starts this season.
Pittsburgh counters with Andrew Heaney on the mound in this contest. Heaney has struggled this year. His ERA sits at 5.03 and his most recent start saw him struggle against Chicago. He will look to turn things around here against a Diamondbacks team that struggled at the dish last night.
Recent Team Streaks
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last five games.
- Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last five games.
- Pittsburgh had a three-game winning streak snapped in last night’s 1-0 loss in 11 innings.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Eugenio Suárez (ARI) | Over 0.5 HR |
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | Over 5.5 K |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | Over 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 2-2 for the year.
- The over/under has gone 2-2 in the games these teams have played against each other.
- The Pirates have been shut out in both of their losses to the Diamondbacks in 2025.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Arizona 5 – Pittsburgh 3
Win Probability: Arizona 61%, Pittsburgh 39%
Final Thoughts
Arizona enters this game with a clear edge on the mound. Kelly’s consistency matched up with Heaney’s struggles will make the Diamondbacks moneyline the strongest play for me. Pittsburgh’s limited offensive firepower and Heaney’s recent form create a bad combination for them today. I’ll take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline as they look for a second straight win in Pittsburgh.
