Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/21/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On June 21, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park in the first game of their series. The Phillies are having an exceptional season with a 49-25 record, while the Diamondbacks are hovering around average at 37-38. Philadelphia is currently the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%.

Philadelphia is projected to start right-hander Taijuan Walker, who has not had the best of seasons, sporting a 5.33 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.69 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better days ahead. Walker has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 over 9 starts this year and projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 1.9 walks while striking out 3.8 batters.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who has struggled even more with a 6.00 ERA. Despite this, his xFIP of 4.54 indicates he might also be due for some positive regression. Montgomery's Win/Loss record stands at 5-4 over 10 starts, and he projects to pitch 5.5 innings, giving up 3.1 earned runs, 6.3 hits, and 1.5 walks while striking out 4.2 batters.

Philadelphia's offense has been one of the best in MLB this season, ranking 4th in overall performance, batting average, and stolen bases, and 5th in home runs. Kyle Schwarber has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .304 with a 1.298 OPS, 4 home runs, and 7 RBIs in six games. The Phillies' bullpen, ranked 3rd in the league by advanced-stat Power Rankings, will look to shut down the Diamondbacks late in the game.

Arizona's offense, while not as potent, is still solid, ranking 8th overall. Jake McCarthy has been a standout recently, boasting a .615 batting average and 1.446 OPS over his last four games. However, the Diamondbacks' bullpen has been a weak spot, ranking 26th.

Given the Phillies' strong season, superior bullpen, and powerful offense, they seem well-positioned to take the first game of this series. The Diamondbacks will need Montgomery to find his form and their bullpen to step up if they hope to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery has used his curveball 7.9% more often this year (30.1%) than he did last season (22.2%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Eugenio Suarez has big-time power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker struggles to strike batters out (17th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's 90.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.5-mph fall off from last season's 91.9-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Bryce Harper has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 58 games (+20.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 74 games (+5.85 Units / 6% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+12.25 Units / 30% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.26 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.06

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