Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 4/15/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 15, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at LoanDepot Park in what marks the beginning of their series matchup. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Marlins holding an 8-7 record and the Diamondbacks slightly ahead at 9-7. While the Marlins are having an above-average season, the Diamondbacks are enjoying a strong start that places them among the top teams in the league.

The Marlins will send Connor Gillispie to the mound, who has struggled to find his footing this season. Although Gillispie's ERA stands at a respectable 3.86, his 4.41 xFIP suggests he might not maintain this level of performance. He has yet to secure a win this year, with a 0-1 record after three starts. Facing him will be Merrill Kelly, who has had a rocky start with a 7.20 ERA, but his 6.46 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement.

The Marlins offense ranks 13th in MLB, bolstered by a strong batting average of .265, but they have hit only 11 home runs this season, ranking 25th. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, with a high batting average of .275 and a solid showing in runs scored. They are likely to capitalize on Gillispie's low strikeout rate, as his 20.0 K% may not be enough against a Diamondbacks lineup that rarely strikes out.

Betting lines currently favor the Diamondbacks, who have an implied team total of 4.71 runs compared to the Marlins' 3.79. With both teams looking to establish momentum early in this series, the Diamondbacks hold a competitive edge based on their offensive prowess and Gillispie's inconsistencies on the mound.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Merrill Kelly has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.7% less often this season (57.1%) than he did last year (65.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.318 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .339 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Extreme flyball bats like Derek Hill are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games at home (+26.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 108 games (+29.90 Units / 25% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.22, Miami Marlins 3.98

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Connor Gillispie - Marlins

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