Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 6/23/2025

On June 23, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Guaranteed Rate Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The White Sox, currently struggling with a 25-53 record, are looking to shake off a disappointing season. In contrast, the Diamondbacks sit at 39-38, showing signs of a more average campaign but still in contention for a Wild Card spot.

In their most recent game, the Diamondbacks lost despite their potent offense, which ranks 3rd best in MLB this season. The White Sox, on the other hand, continue to flounder, with their offense sitting at an alarming 30th in the league. This stark contrast could play a crucial role in today's matchup.

On the mound, the White Sox are set to start Shane Smith, who has had an up-and-down year with a 3-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.85. However, his 4.32 xFIP suggests he has benefitted from some good fortune, indicating potential struggles ahead. Smith's high walk rate (9.7 BB%) could be problematic against a Diamondbacks lineup known for being patient and drawing walks, ranking 4th in MLB in that category.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill for Arizona, looking to improve on his 2-4 record and 5.93 ERA. While his numbers appear concerning, the projections indicate he may be due for better results, as his xFIP of 4.08 suggests he has faced some bad luck. Rodriguez's flyball tendencies might not be as detrimental against a White Sox team that has hit just 60 home runs this season, ranking 28th in the league.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup could be closer than the records suggest, especially given the White Sox's high implied team total of 4.29 runs. Bettors should keep an eye on how the contrasting offenses and pitching performances unfold in this intriguing interleague clash.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Among every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Geraldo Perdomo's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 88-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 83.2-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Shane Smith is an extreme groundball pitcher (43% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #3 HR venue in the league — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Arizona's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Chase Meidroth, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater, Luis Robert Jr.).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+12.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 51 games (+12.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.20 Units / 92% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.15, Chicago White Sox 4.83

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Shane Smith - White Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.