Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 6/23/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 23, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks square off on June 23, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Phillies, currently boasting an impressive 49-26 record, are firmly in the playoff hunt and having a stellar season. In contrast, the Diamondbacks sit at an even 38-38, reflecting an average season for the club.

The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who ranks as the 34th best starter in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sanchez's strong performance has been a key factor in Philadelphia's success. On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Slade Cecconi, a right-hander who has struggled this season and is considered a subpar pitcher by MLB standards.

Offensively, the Phillies are a juggernaut. They rank 3rd in team batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases, showcasing a well-rounded and potent lineup. Kyle Schwarber has been particularly hot, hitting .273 with a 1.156 OPS, 3 home runs, and 5 RBIs over the past week. This offensive firepower is a significant advantage for Philadelphia, especially against a struggling pitcher like Cecconi.

The Diamondbacks' offense, while respectable, lacks the same punch. They rank 6th in team batting average but only 16th in home runs and 17th in stolen bases. Joc Pederson has been a bright spot recently, hitting .429 with a 1.241 OPS over his last five games, but the lineup overall may struggle against Sanchez's effective pitching.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Phillies are projected to have a 61% chance of winning this game, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 63%. The projections also foresee a high-scoring affair, with the Phillies expected to score 5.76 runs on average compared to the Diamondbacks' 4.76.

With the Phillies as big betting favorites and riding high on a successful season, they are well-positioned to take the third game of the series against an average-performing Diamondbacks squad. Expect Philadelphia's potent offense and Sanchez's reliable pitching to be the difference-makers in this matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 10th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 65 games (+18.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.76 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.76

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