Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 6/22/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tommy Henry - D-Backs
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The stage is set for an intriguing National League matchup on June 22, 2024, as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, enjoying a stellar season with a 49-26 record, take on the D-Backs, who are at an average 38-38. This is the second game in their series, with the Phillies looking to capitalize on their current form.

The Phillies have the upper hand, led by Zack Wheeler, the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Wheeler has been exceptional this season, boasting an 8-4 record with a sparkling 2.84 ERA. Despite his 3.46 xFIP suggesting some regression, he projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.3 batters—numbers that could spell trouble for the D-Backs' hitters.

On the mound for Arizona is Tommy Henry, who has struggled mightily this year. With a 6.23 ERA and the dubious distinction of being one of the worst pitchers in MLB per advanced stats, Henry could be in for a rough outing. However, his 4.81 xFIP hints at some underlying potential for improvement. THE BAT X projects Henry to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 3.5 earned runs, but his high walk rate (9.8%) could be a significant disadvantage against a Phillies offense that ranks 4th in drawing walks.

Philadelphia's offense has been electric, ranking 4th in team batting average and stolen bases, and 7th in home runs. Kyle Schwarber has been a standout recently, with a .273 batting average and 1.156 OPS over the last week. The D-Backs’ offense, while no slouch at 8th best in MLB, has been less consistent, particularly in power, ranking 17th in home runs.

The Phillies' bullpen, a top-3 unit per Power Rankings, further strengthens their case, especially when compared to Arizona’s bullpen, which ranks 24th. This disparity could be pivotal late in the game.

With a high implied team total of 5.10 runs and the betting line strongly favoring Philadelphia at -235, the Phillies are in a prime position to add another win to their impressive season. Conversely, the D-Backs, with an implied win probability of 32%, will need a lot to go right to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Tommy Henry has recorded 14.2 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 11th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Blaze Alexander has experienced some positive variance this year. His .310 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .255.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

It may be wise to expect worse results for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's slider utilization has fallen by 15.9% from last year to this one (26.6% to 10.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tommy Henry has a pitch-to-contact profile (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 66 games (+17.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 away games (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+18.10 Units / 43% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.02 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.9

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