Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 5/11/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • John Means - Orioles

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On May 11, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles will be the home team, while the Diamondbacks will be the away team. This interleague matchup promises to be an exciting game with intriguing storylines.

The Orioles are having a great season, boasting a record of 25-12. Their offense has been impressive, ranking as the 6th best in MLB. They have showcased their power, ranking 17th in team home runs, and have a solid batting average, ranking 14th in the league. The Orioles bullpen is also performing well, ranked as the 10th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have had a below-average season with a record of 18-21. Their offense has been decent, ranking 11th in MLB, but their bullpen has struggled, ranked as the 25th best. The Diamondbacks have shown their strength in stealing bases, ranking 3rd in the league.

On the mound, the Orioles will rely on left-handed pitcher John Means. Means has been superb this season, with a record of 1-0 and an exceptional ERA of 0.00. However, his xFIP suggests that he may regress in his performance going forward. The Diamondbacks will counter with right-handed pitcher Ryne Nelson, who has had a more challenging season with an ERA of 5.23. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in his future outings.

It is worth noting that John Means, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face a Diamondbacks offense that ranks among the teams with the fewest strikeouts in MLB. This could provide the Diamondbacks with an advantage, as Means may struggle to capitalize on his strength.

According to the current odds, the Orioles are the favorites with a projected win probability of 61%. Their implied team total is 4.79 runs. The Diamondbacks, considered underdogs, have an implied win probability of 39% and a projected team total of 3.71 runs.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Orioles and the Diamondbacks. The Orioles are the stronger team, but the Diamondbacks have the potential to exploit the matchup against John Means. With their offense and bullpen, the Orioles should have a slight edge. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's 94.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 77th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corbin Carroll's speed has dropped off this season. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.92 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the league's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

John Means is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (3.0) implies that Colton Cowser has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 19.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 84 games (+19.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 135 games (+11.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Kevin Newman has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 42% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.17 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.89

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