The Western Michigan Broncos will travel to East Lansing to face the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium on Friday. The Spartans enter as heavy favorites in this all-Michigan matchup on the gridiron. But Michigan State knows that there are no guarantees in college football after struggling in their season opener last year. Here, I take a closer look at this non-conference matchup and give you my Western Michigan vs Michigan State prediction.
Our Western Michigan vs Michigan State Pick
- Pick: Michigan State Spartans –20.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Western Michigan Broncos vs Michigan State Spartans
- Date & Time: Friday, August 29, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
- Broadcast: FS1
Western Michigan vs Michigan State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State –20.5 | MSU –1800 / WMU +900 | 49.5 |
Key Storylines
Michigan State aims to bounce back from a 5–7 2024 campaign under second-year head coach Jonathan Smith. QB Aidan Chiles returns with experience but must cut down on turnovers for this season to be a success for the Spartans. WMU heads into this year under third-year coach Lance Taylor. Taylor will have a new defensive coordinator as the Broncos look to improve on that side of the ball after giving up the third-most points among MAC teams last season.
The Spartans were nearly upset in their season opener by Florida Atlantic last season. Chiles struggled in that game and the Spartans were sloppy with their red zone execution. That should serve as a reminder that they cannot take this game lightly.
Quarterback Play
MSU’s Aidan Chiles showed flashes of potential last season but was turnover-prone with 11 interceptions and four fumbles. The Spartans could cruise in this game if Chiles protects the football and utilizes his weapons more effectively than he did a season ago.
WMU has confirmed that they are going to use two quarterbacks in this season opener. Broc Lowry and Brady Jones are both going to take snaps for the Broncos in this contest. This is an opportunity for Western Michigan to see what they have in both signal callers. But it also feels like they are treating this game more like a scrimmage than an actual competition to be won.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Western Michigan is 0-9 straight-up in its last nine meetings against Michigan State. MSU is 8-0 SU in their last eight games versus MAC teams.
- WMU is 1-4 ATS in its last five games. MSU is 0-5 ATS in its last five. But MSU has covered the spread in five of the last seven games they have played against WMU.
Western Michigan vs Michigan State Model Projection
Score Projection: Western Michigan 15 – Michigan State 36
Win Probability: Western Michigan 8%, Michigan State 92%
Final Thoughts
A three-touchdown win for Michigan State seems about right heading into this game. We should see a better start to the season from Chiles and the Michigan State offense now that he has more experience under his belt. With the quarterback situation for the Broncos being a mess, I think we see Michigan State run away with this game in the second half and cover the spread.
