The West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1) will face the Kansas Jayhawks (2-1) on Saturday in the Big 12 opener for both teams. Kansas enters this game a 13.5-point favorite at home and will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season. West Virginia is coming off an overtime win in the Backyard Brawl rivalry game and will look to pull off a second straight upset over a rival. Here, I break down this Big 12 matchup on the gridiron and give you my West Virginia vs Kansas prediction.
Our West Virginia vs Kansas Pick
- Pick: West Virginia +13.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: West Virginia Mountaineers vs Kansas Jayhawks
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
- West Virginia’s Defensive Strength: The Mountaineers’ defense has been stout. They have limited opponents to an average of 14.7 points per game. Their defense held Pitt to 24 points in an overtime game last week and neutralized Pitt’s passing attack.
- Kansas’s Offensive Firepower: Quarterback Jalon Daniels leads a high-scoring offense. Kansas is averaging 36 points per game going into this conference opener.
- Turnover Battle: West Virginia’s ability to win the turnover battle has been big for them. They have a 104-16 record since 2002 when they win the turnover battle. But turnovers aren’t easy to generate against this Kansas offense.
Quarterback Play
Jalon Daniels (Kansas): Daniels has been efficient, throwing for 679 yards and 9 touchdowns this season. He has done a nice job of spreading the ball to different receivers so far this year. No receiver on the Jayhawks is averaging 70 receiving yards per game. That balance will be key to Kansas’ success again in this game.
Nicco Marchiol (West Virginia): Marchiol’s return from injury was huge in the Mountaineers’ comeback win against Pittsburgh. Marchiol showed his leadership and playmaking ability in that game. But Marchiol only has two touchdown passes this year and needs execution along with his leadership.
Betting Trends & H2H
- West Virginia is 2-1 against the spread going into this game.
- Kansas is 1-2 against the spread to begin the year.
- All three of West Virginia’s games have gone under their totals.
- Kansas has seen two of their three games stay under their totals.
- Head-to-Head: West Virginia leads the series 11-2, including a 32-28 victory in 2024.
West Virginia vs Kansas Model Projection
Score Projection: West Virginia 21 – Kansas 24
Win Probability: West Virginia 45%, Kansas 55%
Final Thoughts
I think we are going to see a close game between these Big 12 rivals. Kansas should be able to pull it out in the end at home and with a more explosive passing game. But I think that West Virginia will cover the spread. Their defense has been very good early in the year and they should be able to keep this game within a couple of scores.
