The Toledo Rockets and Kentucky Wildcats will meet on Saturday afternoon in the first game of their 2025 college football seasons. Kentucky is a home favorite against a Toledo team picked to win the MAC. But just because Kentucky is in the SEC does not guarantee that they will pass this season-opening test. Continue reading to get my thoughts on this MAC vs SEC matchup and to get my Toledo vs Kentucky prediction for Week 1.
Our Toledo vs Kentucky Pick
- Pick: Kentucky -9.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs Kentucky Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025,12:45 p.m. ET
- Venue: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Toledo vs Kentucky Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky –9.5 | Kentucky –320 / Toledo +260 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
The Kentucky Wildcats are hoping to reshape their identity under head coach Mark Stoops. This team has hung its hat on defense and running the football in recent years. But they have brought in an exciting transfer quarterback in Zach Calzada who they hope will make them more dangerous through the air this year. The defense of Kentucky will always have high expectations but they will have to stop an explosive Toledo offense in this game.
Toledo is coming off an 8-5 season that included a six-overtime bowl win over Pitt and an upset over Mississippi State. The Rockets were selected to win the MAC in the preseason coaches poll and received 13 votes in the AP poll. They are considered one of the best MAC teams in recent years and could make a huge statement with a win on the road against an SEC opponent here.
Quarterback Play
Kentucky enters this opener with fresh leadership at quarterback. Veteran Zach Calzada brings significant FBS experience at Texas A&M. He also had over 6,000 passing yards and 54 passing touchdowns during his two seasons at FCS Incarnate Word. The team hopes his steadiness and leadership will compensate for uncertainties along the offensive line and in the backfield.
Toledo’s Tucker Gleason returns for his fifth year with the Toledo program. He had over 2,700 yards last season along with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Gleason had a career-high 60.5% completion rate last season and will try to build on that this season.
Betting Trends & H2H
These teams have played just once all-time in non-conference action. That game came in 2019 and Kentucky won 38-24 in Lexington.
Toledo vs Kentucky Model Projection
Score Projection: Kentucky 31 – Toledo 17
Win Probability: Kentucky 75%, Toledo 25%
Final Thoughts
I think that Toledo is clearly the team to beat in the MAC going into this season. But playing against a quality SEC defense is going to be a tough task for the Rockets. I’m excited about Calzada at quarterback for the Wildcats and expect him to have a strong first start with Kentucky. I recommend laying the points with the home team here, as they should win this game by double-digits.
