The Toledo Rockets (2-1) are set to face the Western Michigan Broncos (0-3) on Saturday in Kalamazoo. This is the MAC opener for both of these teams. Toledo enters the game as a heavy favorite against a Broncos team that has yet to win a game this season. Will the Rockets achieve a successful liftoff in MAC play, or will they get upset? Keep reading to get my Toledo vs Western Michigan prediction.
Our Toledo vs Western Michigan Pick
- Pick: Western Michigan +13.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs Western Michigan Broncos
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- Toledo’s Offensive Balance: The Rockets’ ability to balance their passing and rushing attacks has made them a tough opponent. Their lone loss this season came against the Kentucky Wildcats of the SEC and the Rockets have their balanced attack to thank for their 2-1 start.
- Western Michigan’s Offensive Struggles: The Broncos need to find a way to improve their offensive production to stay competitive. They have averaged just 12 points per game early in the year. To be fair, they have played a pair of Big Ten teams within their first three games of the season. But they may not be in for an easy day here either.
- Defensive Matchups: Both teams’ defenses will play a crucial role in determining the game’s outcome. Toledo has been better at keeping opponents off the scoreboard so far this season. But Toledo has also not played as tough a schedule early on.
Quarterback Play
Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason has been efficient. He has averaged around 200 yards per game through the air and has just one interception through three games. The Rockets will likely be in good shape if Gleason can continue to avoid turnovers.
Western Michigan has used a two-quarterback system with Brady Jones and Broc Lowry, but both have struggled, combining for only 91 passing yards in their 38-0 loss to Illinois. We should see better from the quarterbacks of the Broncos here against a less daunting opponent.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toledo is 3-0 against the spread this season.
- Western Michigan is 0-3 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
- The total has gone under in six of Western Michigan’s last seven games.
- Toledo leads the all-time series 46-32.
- In their last meeting, Toledo defeated Western Michigan 49-31 in 2023.
Toledo vs Western Michigan Model Projection
- Score Projection: Toledo 29 – Western Michigan 20
- Win Probability: Toledo 75%, Western Michigan 25%
Final Thoughts
I fully expect Toledo to cover the spread in this game. But I am not willing to lay this many points with Toledo here. Western Michigan has played a brutal non-conference schedule and they should look much more competent against a conference foe here. I’ll take the points with the Broncos and hope they get into a rhythm in their MAC opener.
