The Texas Longhorns will host the Sam Houston Bearkats on Saturday night at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. Texas is a heavy favorite in this game but they have faced questions on offense through their first few games of the year. The Longhorns will look to get back on track offensively against a Sam Houston team that is 0-3 to begin the season. Here, I break this game down and give you my Sam Houston vs Texas prediction.
Our Sam Houston vs Texas Pick
- Pick: Texas -39.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Longhorns vs. Sam Houston Bearkats
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 8:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- Broadcast: SEC Network+ / ESPN+
Key Storylines
- Texas’ Offensive Adjustments: The Longhorns have struggled to find offensive rhythm, ranking 92nd nationally in scoring with 24 points per game. Quarterback Arch Manning has thrown for 579 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. But Manning has drawn criticism for his mechanics and his ability to hit receivers for explosive plays. The return of wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. from a concussion is expected to bolster the passing game.
- Sam Houston’s Challenges: The Bearkats enter the game winless at 0-3. Quarterback Mabrey Mettauer has thrown for 310 yards and one touchdown. The Bearkats have lost each of their first three games by 17 points and that margin would be a considered a huge moral victory for the Bearkats in this contest.
Quarterback Play
- Arch Manning (Texas): Manning has shown flashes of potential but remains inconsistent. His ability to connect with returning receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. could be pivotal in this game. Above all else, the goal here is to get Manning into a rhythm before SEC play ramps up.
- Mabrey Mettauer (Sam Houston): Mettauer has been the primary signal-caller for the Bearkats, but he faces a formidable Texas defense that has allowed just 10.3 points per game, ranking 18th nationally.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas Against the Spread (ATS): 0-3 this season
- Sam Houston ATS: 0-3 this season
- Over/Under Trends: Sam Houston games have gone over the total twice in three games. All three of Texas’ games have gone under their totals so far this year.
- Head-to-Head: Texas leads the all-time series 1-0, with a 56-3 victory in 2006 being the only meeting between these teams.
Sam Houston vs Texas Model Projection
- Score Projection: Texas 55 – Sam Houston 7
- Win Probability: Texas 98.9%, Sam Houston 1.1%
Final Thoughts
If Texas can’t get its offense up and running against this Sam Houston team, there might not be any hope for the Longhorns at all this season. I am going to lay the points with Texas here with the expectation that they will try to run up the score to develop some confidence before SEC play begins. I could end up regretting that decision when all is said and done.
